Bitcoin (BTC) fell toward $74,000 and U.S. stock futures fell on Tuesday as a senior Federal Reserve official expressed support for a rate hike.
Key points:
- Bitcoin traded 1.3% lower on Tuesday, hitting $74,080, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.4% before the open on Wall Street.
- U.S. CPI data for October, due out at 8:30 a.m. Tuesday, is expected to show a monthly increase of 0.3%, less than September’s 0.6% gain.
- Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would “support” a 0.25% rate hike at the Dec. 9 FOMC meeting, regardless of Tuesday’s CPI reading.
Waller would “still support” the December rate hike after the lower consumer price index.
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD hit $74,080 on Bitstamp, down 1.3% on the day.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
U.S. stock market futures trended lower, according to Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that he would support a 25 basis point increase in interest rates at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on December 9th. At the time of writing, Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.4%.
His decision, he added, will not be influenced by lower-than-expected inflation data. October printouts of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) are scheduled to be released on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The increase is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, compared with September when the increase was 0.6%, pushed up by rising fuel costs.
“While I hope for an improvement compared to September, even if that does occur, I would still support a 25 basis point increase in the FOMC rate at our December meeting,” Waller commented in a speech at the Bank of England Watchers Conference in London.
“However, if inflation turns out to be significantly higher than I expected, more forceful action from the FOMC may be necessary.”
US CPI 12-month change in %. Source: BLS
While the consumer price index is particularly sensitive to fuel price volatility, Waller also pointed to high readings of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, known as the Fed’s “preferred” inflation indicator, which he confirmed as the FOMC’s “targeted measure.”
“Let’s just say it. Inflation data for September was bad. There was no silver lining,” he said, referring to a PCE increase of 0.5% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year.
After the speech, markets immediately reassessed the probability of a 25 basis point hike in December, from 76.3% to 96.3%, according to data from CME Group FedWatch tool.
Probability comparison of Fed target interest rates for the December FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group
Government shutdown in 2025 to restrict market CPI indications
Fiscal tightening measures have traditionally had a negative impact on the prices of crypto and risk assets as they entail a reduction in liquidity and associated capital inflows.
Related: Bitcoin and tech stocks calm Nvidia’s jitters as analysts ponder a $68,000 target
Christopher Hodge, chief U.S. economist at Natixis CIB Americas, commented on the impetus for the expected slowdown in October’s CPI upward trend, pointing to price declines in both fuel and accommodation.
“We expect the slowdown in core CPI to be driven by a reversal in accommodation prices, particularly owner-occupied rentals and away-from-home accommodation. Likewise, stabilization in diesel prices should help dampen price pressures on energy-intensive goods,” he wrote. quoted from CNBC.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which publishes the consumer price index, confirmed that Tuesday’s release will only include monthly statistics because the U.S. government shutdown in 2025 limits data availability. For the same reason, CPI data for October 2025 has not been released.
